UFOs – the camera doesn’t lie…

…It Just Tells Dirty Great Big Fat Whoppers!

by Anthony Wharton – St-Helens, UK

MEIER UNDER THE MICROSCOPE /EXTRAORDINARY CLAIMS OF EXTRATERRESTRIAL CONTACT.

I continue to be fascinated with the Swiss farmer who has, in my opinion, been engaged in the longest running UFO hoax on record. My fascination comes from the obviously terrible quality of his hoax and the lameness of his excuses for failure, combined with the fact that there are so many people who still believe him.

Not having looked at the Meier case in over 10 years, seeing as it is Meier’s 85th birthday in February, I decided to mark this milestone by taking a fresh look at the case to see if anything has changed.

You can watch a short video clip showing Billy Meier’s 8mm movie clips on YouTube.

Throughout my life I have had several genuine UFO sightings which remain unexplained to this day and this is the reason I became interested in the UFO subject. After researching the phenomenon for many years, I came to the conclusion that most UFO cases, especially photographic cases, are nothing more than made up stories and hoaxes. One of the most controversial UFO cases on record is the Billy Meier case.

WHO IS BILLY MEIER?

Eduard Albert “Billy” Meier is an 84 year old, one and a half armed, Swiss farmer. He was born in 1937 and he claims to have been in contact with extraterrestrials named the “Plejaren” or, formerly known as, the “Pleiadians”.

His claims of extraterrestrial contact were first published in the late 1970s/early 1980s. What made Meier different from previous UFO contactees is that his photographs were of, what appeared to be, structured craft. However, many people soon grew very suspicious of Meier’s claims due to the vast number (100s) of crystal clear, daylight photographs of the UFOs.

After reading so much nonsense written by Michael Horn (Billy Meier’s authorised American media representative and official spokesman) about how it is impossible to replicate the effect of Meier’s photographs without millions of dollars or access to Hollywood special effects equipment, I decided to see just how difficult it would be to create some fake UFO photographs using nothing more than miniature models and fishing wire. (Back in 2004) I made some tiny UFO shaped models and suspended them on fishing line on the end of a long rod and then photographed them using a 35mm camera. The results are conclusive proof that Billy Meier’s UFO photographic evidence can be very easily replicated and shows that anybody can set themselves up as a UFO contactee.

But to Meier and Horn it all makes perfect sense when expressed in dollars and cents, pounds, shillings and pence. (The full annual membership fee to the FIGU cult used to be $631 Dollars, plus take into account all the revenues from years of book, DVD/video sales, interviews, presentations, documentaries etc). You can see my examples of fake UFO photographs I created on Flickr.

THE WEDDING CAKE UFO CONTROVERSY…

Watch the Wedding Cake UFO video clip on YouTube.

The wedding cake UFO photograph is an image showing what Meier and Horn claim is a very large extraterrestrial spacecraft hovering over Meier’s small van. I commented on this photograph (back in 2004) and suggested that what it really shows is a small model close to the camera. After many heated debates with Meier and Horn they once again challenged me to back up my claims and I gladly decided to accept this second challenge. So once again using nothing more than a flying saucer shaped model and a 35mm film camera, I managed to very easily replicate the effect of the wedding cake UFO photograph. My photographs show what appears to be a very large flying saucer hovering over some very large vehicles and are almost identical to Meier’s photograph.

What we are seeing in Meier’s photographs is not extraterrestrial but nothing more than an optical illusion, which is created by photographing a small model very close to the camera, a technique called false or forced perspective. Meier was unable to produce photographs of real UFOs, so he faked his photographic evidence using miniature UFO models to back up his fictitious story. So there we have it, proof that replicating the effect of even Meier’s hardest piece of photographic evidence, really is a piece of cake!

Note the use of carpet tacks on the wedding cake UFO model.

In fact, the carpet tacks offer another devastating indication of fakery by Meier, if one will only notice it. When looking at how they are placed between the spheres at the middle, one can see one of them is missing. It can actually be found laying on the surface of the model, apparently after it simply fell off, unnoticed by Meier, as well as by many of the believers in this case!

This is clearly highlighted in the photograph of the wedding cake UFO, pictured outside Meier’s property.

ENTER MR VICTOR GIBBS (NOW DECEASED).

Back in 2009 I was contacted by an elderly man named Victor Gibbs via E-Mail. Victor had done some optical research and believed that he had discovered evidence that the Billy Meier UFO film clips and photographs are hoaxed. Victor had been retired for some years, but earlier in his life he worked in the gardening industry for 30 years. This included working in all aspects of the profession including maintenance, forestry, plantation, landscaping, farming and tree surgery. Victor looked at the Billy Meier photographs and film clips on the internet and after his research and experience as a gardener, was in no doubt that Billy Meier used miniature trees in some of his film clips and photographs.

See the photograph of Victor standing next to a miniature tree which he believed was roughly the same size as the tree that Meier used several times in the video footage and a number of other photographs. He was actually confident that Meier’s tree was much smaller than this tree and certainly no bigger than it.

Meier claimed that the wedding cake beam ship video and other photographic stills contained fully sized trees. Victor believed this to be completely untrue and was sure that Meier zoomed in on the tree in the wedding cake beam ship video from a distance to make it look like it was fully sized, but in actual fact in doing so he has revealed that the tree is quite small. Note how the miniature tree which Victor is standing next to looks to be the same size as Meier’s alleged tree. As Victor pointed out to me, if you look at the size of the drum lid that the gentleman is holding then the actual size of the tree could even be much, much smaller in reality, possibly even as small as 30 inches in height, Victor said that this is what is commonly known as a tabletop Christmas tree. Also, when the photograph of the drum lid is compared to the photograph of the wedding cake UFO, it is strikingly obvious that this is the object that Billy Meier used to stage the whole event (the photograph of the gentleman holding the drum lid was taken at Billy Meier’s organization/cult, known as FIGU, the photo clearly shows several of the Harcostar Universal Containers in a storage room. The person holding the lid of the container has been identified as Phil McCainey).

With regards to the extraterrestrial craft shown in Billy Meier’s videos and photographs, Victor believed that they are fundamentally flawed. Victor spent many years in the Royal Air Force, both flying and observing aircraft. He was also an avid and keen photographer. He felt that Meier’s craft are too crisp, clear and in focus to be distant aerial objects and that they are actually miniatures suspended close to the camera lens. Victor also pointed out that there is no visible atmospheric haze or pressure around the objects or ground reflected light. Victor also stated that the alleged UFOs are very dark on their underside which Victor believed to be a tell tale sign that they are very small and close to the camera lens. In the close up photographs, there are no shadows of the objects visible on the ground. As Victor pointed out to me, in the photograph of the wedding cake UFO hovering over Meier’s small van, notice how Meier’s tiny van clearly casts a shadow to the left yet the alleged huge UFO leaves not even one inch of shadow on the ground! They are, in Victor’s opinion, easily replicated hoaxes.

To sum up, after examining Billy Meier’s video and photographic evidence and his own research, Victor believed that either the UFOs being captured on film by Billy Meier were tiny in size and piloted by beings only a few inches high, or Billy Meier’s photographic evidence was simply created using tiny models and miniature trees. Looking at both of these explanations it is clearly obvious which is the more probable.

THE WANDERING TREE…

Another question I put to Billy Meier and Michael Horn was….

Why does what clearly looks like the same miniature tree seem to appear in many of Meier’s photographs and film clips, yet the photography was taken years apart and at different locations? Their reply was that the reason the tree looks similar in certain photographs and film clips is just simply a coincidence, they also maintained that all the trees in Meier’s photographic evidence were real huge trees, some as tall as 40 to 50 feet in height or even bigger. My reply to them both was that what they are saying is complete nonsense and just simply impossible within the realms of nature. See the image showing a photograph and 2 stills from Meier’s film clips, notice how we see the same almost identical miniature tree in all 3 images, yet these images were taken years apart and at different locations. I pointed out to both Meier and Horn that the odds of nature producing the same identical tree at different locations spanning several years would probably be 1 in several trillion or more, or actually just simply impossible!

The same tree appears to have been used in these different photographs and films because the trees all share the same physical characteristics and the tree is the same size and shape even after 6 years. Also, the photographs and the films were each taken in different cities, there is no evidence that a real live tree ever existed in any of these locations, and the official explanation from Meier and his followers is that the extraterrestrials erased people’s memories about the tree, but they left the photographs and films alone!

Another controversial piece of tree evidence is the Hasenbol UFO photograph. This UFO was photographed by Meier in 1976. Michael Horn, Billy Meier and his associates claim that the UFO is behind the tree branches. I recently took a fresh look at the Hasenbol UFO evidence and simply turned the photograph into a negative image. The photo enlargements and the computer analysis images all clearly reveal that the small model UFO is clearly infront of the tree. This new analysis finally puts this argument to bed once and for all!

Meier and Horn also claim that the UFO hovering over Meier’s van is a huge extraterrestrial spacecraft and is partially obscured by the tree foliage. Again, I decided to take a fresh look at this photograph. Using computer analysis, I simply enhanced the brightness and also turned the photograph into a negative image. The results conclusively prove that this is completely untrue and completely false. As we can can clearly see from the digitally enhanced analysis images, the UFO is clearly in front of the tree and no tree foliage or branches are visible or obscuring any part of the UFO whatsoever, proving that what we are seeing is a small model UFO very close to the camera, another myth finally dispelled!

What Meier and Horn are referring to is simply distorted pixelation, due to the extremely low quality of the image. Many years ago I asked Meier if he would send me some high resolution images along with a fragment of extraterrestrial material for independent scientific analysis, needless to say my request was refused! (It is now 18 years since I requested a sample of extraterrestrial material).

Meier also put forward a lot more very controversial and highly suspicious evidence, including photographs of what he claimed were 2 female extraterrestrials, named Asket and Nera. The photographs are crude fakes showing dancing girls from the Dean Martin show, Meier created these images by simply photographing his television screen!

Meier also put forward a photograph of a flying dinosaur, he claimed he took this image when he travelled back in time 65 million years with his extraterrestrial associates in a pleiadian time machine, Meier simply photographed the image from a book!

One of the most ridiculous pieces of evidence that Meier ever put forward is a photograph of what he claimed showed an extraterrestrial named Alena holding a laser gun. And again, looking at this photograph more recently with fresh eyes and examining it much closer, I am in no doubt whatsoever that the alleged extraterrestrial in the photograph is either Meier himself, wearing a woman’s wig, or Meier’s EX wife, Popi Meier, simply dressed in a 1970s golden disco glitter suit. It is obvious that Meier made the infamous laser gun from junk, including items such as a garden hose pipe attachment, tin foil and bits of plastic and other tat (somebody give that man a Blue Peter Badge). And looking at the photograph of the 1960s vintage toy space gun which I recently found on an internet website, it is pretty obvious where Meier got the red plastic barrel from, either Meier was getting sloppy or he has a wicked sense of humour. Looking at the photograph of the alien Alena and Popi Meier, notice how they both have very similar dark frizzy hair. Also, something else that I noticed is, in all the available photographs of Alena the left arm is always obscured from view, is that because it is Meier that we see in the photographs or is it just simply another coincidence that Meier’s left arm has been amputated?

Meier also put forward a photograph of what he claimed showed the landing marks from one of the flying saucers. Meier claimed that these crop circles were over 2 metres across in size (over 6 feet). Back in 2005 I contacted a crop circle researcher and I Sent him the photograph and asked him for his professional opinion. He said that after studying and comparing Meier’s photograph to images of real crop circles, he was in no doubt whatsoever that Meier’s photograph shows tiny man made circles, roughly the size of a dinner plate and certainly no bigger than 15 inches across. I also decided to take a fresh and closer look at this image, if you simply compare the size of the circles to the size of the visible blades of grass and leaves, one can clearly see that there is no possible way that the circles can be over 6 feet across in size!

The vanishing UFO film clips are just simply edits known as jump cuts and if you watch them very closely you can very easily spot the cuts, as pointed out by several special effects experts who have also viewed all of Meier’s film clips.

Back in the 1970s, Meier claimed to be in possession of a number of metal alloy and crystal samples. Meier claimed that these samples of material were extraterrestrial in origin and came from several different planets situated in outer space. Meier put forward the metal alloy sample for analysis. It turns out that an actual metallurgist did analyze the metal sample and this is what was revealed:

Page 214 of the 2001 book And Yet…They Fly! states the following:

A metallurgist from the University of Arizona examined one of the metal fragments and analyzed it as a simple ‘cooking pot metal’ or cheap cast metal alloy used to produce such things as tin soldiers.

It seems that the main focus of the Billy Meier case for the last 2 years has been the corona virus pandemic. Meier claims that he was the 1st person on the planet to predict this whole event with information provided to him from his extraterrestrial associates.

You can read Meier’s corona virus prophecies here.

Meier has been accused many times by many people of taking the information attached to his prophecies from credible sources after certain actual events have already happened and after the information has already been documented and published. Credible sources such as scientific/medical/astronomy journals and nature publications, Meier has been accused of then republishing the information with an earlier and false date, designed to make it look like he predicted certain important and historic events.

If anybody is clutching at straws and wondering if there might just be a chance if Meier’s photographic evidence is genuine and whether his story might be true, the following paragraph and accompanying photographs will help you answer that question.

The 2 computer analysis images show a Type-4 spacecraft over Mount Auruti, Switzerland, photographed by Billy Meier on 29 March 1976. The two computer-enhanced images made from this photograph reveal a great deal about this picture. The images show, in the words of Ground Saucer Watch who did the computer analysis (back in the 1970s), “evidence of a linear structure above the craft”- in plain english, a string or rod supporting the object. The structure is equally clear in the computerised enlargement in the second image. In addition, study of the focus in this picture indicates that the object is close to the camera and is therefore small – about 8 inches (20 centimetres) across, not 23 feet (7 metres) as Meier claimed.

And the final nail in the coffin…

Watch Popi Meier, Meier’s EX wife, admitting on camera that the whole thing is a HOAX!

The fact that most 5 year old kids tell more convincing “fibs” than Meier does not seem to bother the faithful, his believers and his disciples. And that is my real fascination – the human capacity for gullibility, or motivated belief. If it has any limits, they have yet to be documented.

The Meier case is, if nothing else, a natural experiment in human gullibility with the conclusion that there appears to be no limit to this phenomenon.

Just as I expected, it would appear that very little has changed with regards to the Billy Meier UFO case. In Ufology, Billy Meier is considered by most researchers as nothing more than a laughing stock, but it appears that Meier might just have had the last laugh. According to several websites, Meier’s net worth is currently around $1.5 Million Dollars, plus if you take into consideration all the money he must have spent over the last 50 years, that’s not bad for a few wobbly models if the information on those websites is correct?

UPDATE
I received an email from Michael Horn on Sunday 30th January 2022. Michael said “I must credibly rebut all of the information published over the last 10 years”, he also made reference to USAF personnel and astronauts who had allegedly authenticated Meier’s case and photographic evidence.

This is simply Meier and Horn buying more time and deflecting attention away from themselves for failing to confront and answer my truths. It is now time for both Meier and Horn to explain and answer all the above questions, instead of just simply hoping that people will forget about Meier’s abysmal and sloppy photographic mistakes!

Authentication of the Meier case can only be evaluated and based on the photographic evidence that Meier put forward in the 1970s. As this has all been thoroughly debunked and proved to be fake, and has been easily replicated by myself and others, NO other information attached to the case can be considered as evidence, or is worth scrutinizing. To quote Ground Saucer Watch who analysed Meier’s photographic evidence in the 1970s…

“It is our opinion that all of the analyzed photographs are hoaxes, both crude and grandiose, and that they should not be considered evidence of an extraordinary flying craft. All of the evaluated frames can be duplicated with a basic camera and darkroom equipment…the incidents are an updated, 1980 version of the George Adamski claims of detailed photographs and contacteeism with space people.”

In my opinion, all of Meier’s 60,000 contact notes including all of his prophecies, past, present and future, have nothing to do with UFOs and extraterrestrials whatsoever and should be considered as nothing more than toilet paper, or at the very best fish and chip wrappings. In my opinion, Meier falls under the same category as fake psychics and fake mediums, $1 dollar fortune tellers, victorian seances, scam faith healers and all other practicing charlatans!

As for anybody claiming to have authenticated Meier’s case and photographic evidence as genuine, including USAF personnel, astronauts etc, this is a complete fabrication and simply untrue and amounts to nothing more than conjecture and fantasy!

It is now 18 years since I requested a fragment of extraterrestrial material from Meier and Horn for independent scientific analysis. To mark this milestone I have decided to release a new photograph of a fake UFO, this black and white photograph was created by myself using nothing more than a small model suspended on strings. This photograph alone proves that the Meier case is a hoax!

I am also ordering Meier and Horn to pay me the grand sum of $1,000,000 Million dollars in damages for failing to meet my challenge and due to the FACT that I have successfully proved beyond any reasonable doubt, that the Meier case is simply nothing more than a work of science fiction, created by Meier’s overactive imagination. This money MUST be paid, this is what integrity demands, there can be absolutely NO argument, dispute or doubt now, especially considering their abysmal failings.

After reading this article, anybody who might be considering looking into the Billy Meier UFO case, BE WARNED! You will have more success finding some live forever tablets, knitting fog or finding some rocking horse poo then you will in finding a single grain of truth in the Meier case!

Keep your eyes open for the long-awaited new colour photo book/DVD, co-produced by Billy Meier and Michael Horn-I Was Abducted By Pixies, released in July 2022 and yours for only $100 dollars including shipping, available in all good book shops soon (probably)!

As with many UFO cases there is evidence both for and against, it is up to you to look at both sides of the coin and make your own mind up as to what you really believe. One should always keep an open mind, but not to the point where your brain falls out!

IN MEMORY OF MR VICTOR GIBBS (1925-2017) R.I.P

By Anthony Wharton, St-Helens, UK

Cult Dining: The Lotus Heart and the legacy of Sri Chinmoy

Bronwyn Rideout investigates the connection between the Lotus Heart restaurant in Christchurch and Sri Chinmoy.

The Lotus Heart Restaurant has been on my radar for almost as long as I have been living in New Zealand. I was introduced to it by a vegan friend in 2007, when it was still located in Cathedral Square. The restaurant was clean, airy, bright and well-appointed, but the prominent place given to the hard-to-miss wall-sized portrait of a beatific Indian gentleman made it obvious that place was a bit… different.

While waiting to pay the bill on my first visit, I rounded the shelves to see books and music that had been written and published solely by Sri Chinmoy. There was also an album that contained photos of the aforementioned gentleman either sitting alongside famous politicians and celebrities, or lifting them using an overly complicated and excessively modified lifting device.

Sri Chinmoy lifts a twin engine Baron airplane with Hugo Girard, 2002’s “World’s Strongest Man” titleholder, 5-time Mr. Universe Bill Pearl and their wives sitting inside. Chinmoy uses a modified standing calf raise machine.

While I haven’t found an online copy of the picture of Sri Chinmoy lifting the diminutive Hayley Westenra that I saw in person, maybe readers will appreciate the time he made a nuisance of himself in the central North Island attempting to lift 1,000 lambs.

My interest piqued, I decided to turn to the internet – not for the free meditation classes on offer, but to find out more. Despite being 2007, there was much more information out about Sri Chinmoy than there is available now. Many ex disciples had turned to blogging platforms such as Livejournal and Yahoo! Groups to share their experiences, and these have long since become defunct. Skeptical websites that had investigated Chinmoy and his operations are now dead links, taking with them any evidence that supported the scattered counterclaims that remain.

In the years following Sri Chinmoy’s death in October 2007, it appears his disciples have become internet savvy and have effectively google-bombed any negative – press unless one deliberately includes cult, scam, or fraud in their search parameters. The best repository of Sri Chinmoy information that is not curated by his organisation is the Cult Education Institute, run by Rick A. Ross. Your mileage may vary with regards to the ethics of Ross’ deprogramming work, and the absence of digital versions of the reports he includes.

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My most recent visit, during my Christmas holidays in December last year, has made me decide that the amazing food is not worth its less than dismal stance on masks, vaccines, and public health. The restaurant was crowded, and diners were nearly cheek to jowl. My husband and I didn’t have a booking, but they were able to seat us near the front entrance, ironically the only place with ventilation and where social distancing was possible. While we waited for our meals, my husband took great delight in noting the poor placement of the single, minuscule QR code, and I questioned the validity of the vaccine exemption cards that were pinned to the colourful saris and white tunics of the employees.

We weren’t the only ones that noticed.

RNZ reported on December 29^th that the Lotus-Heart was fined $20,000 for multiple COVID-19 rule breaches. This was followed with a further $24,000 fine on January 27^th. Owner Bhuvah Thurston is reported to have not engaged with Worksafe in any capacity. After shutting down from December 31^st to January 19^th, the restaurant has continued its defiance by advertising itself as a “Private Contract Association”, which enables the diners to forgo wearing a mask, scanning, or being vaccinated to enter the premises.

Employing similar tactics to the Love Boat Club (formerly MAD café) in Golden Bay, Thurston hopes that by presenting Lotus-Heart as a private club under “common law” they can bypass government regulations. There is some irony in the about-turn to sovereign citizenship, a sham form of secession, given that the Lotus-Heart has claimed $154,000 from the government’s COVID-19 wage subsidy programme.

However, an unexpected development came from the Sri Chinmoy Centre of New Zealand. Director Jogyata Dallas announced on January 28^th that the restaurant had its membership revoked due to its “disregard for current mandates”. Both national and international Sri Chinmoy Centre directors claim that their late guru was a champion of peace, and would have advised his students to follow government and health regulations. As of February 4th, the Lotus-Heart Restaurant continues to respond reactively. It has gone relatively silent on social media (their Instagram account is now private, and their Facebook page has disappeared), and the membership enrolment page from the main website has disappeared into the ether.

The name Sri Chinmoy may not mean much to most New Zealanders. Despite having centres located in Auckland, Hamilton, Taupo, and Wellington that host a myriad of free meditation sessions, concerts, and foot races, there are only an estimated 100 students in New Zealand.

But who was Sri Chinmoy? A guru whose followers are comfortable with attributing a decidedly un-counterculture, pro-government/pro-modern medicine philosophy to him?

It is difficult to parse fact from fiction, due to the aforementioned google-bombing; his Wikipedia entry is hardly unbiased, as it heavily relies on the writings of Sri Chinmoy and his followers. His obituaries were no more enlightening, focusing on his quirkiness and public preoccupation with running and weight-lifting – which earned him the moniker of “The Gonzo Guru” by the Chicago Tribune in the early 90s.

Chinmoy Kumar Ghose was born in what is now Bangladesh in 1931, the youngest of 7 children born to Shahsi (a railway inspector and banker) and Yogamaya. After the death of both parents in a short span of time in 1943, Chinmoy decamped to the Sri Aurobindo Ashram in Pondicherry to join two of his elder brothers. Life within the ashram included a disavowal of alcohol, drugs, sex and politics, but where Chinmoy gained a love of athletics, especially running.

Most narratives of Chinmoy’s early life skip to his job with the Indian Consulate in New York. Ex-disciple Anne Carlton reports, as part of her testimony, that there were tensions at the ashram that hastened his departure. Carlton reports that despite encouragement to pursue his Olympic dream, life at the ashram was difficult, with insufficient food and little educational opportunities. When he was chastised for secretly visiting another ashram, Chinmoy found sponsors connected to the ashram to bring him to the US and secure him a position as a visa clerk at the Indian consulate in 1964, at age 32.

The pay was poor and he was frequently pestered by the “Mother” of the ashram to send back exotic goods to India. With interest in eastern religions rising, Chinmoy saw an opportunity to tap into the same pool of wealthy, Western devotees who supported the Sri Aurobindo ashram. He gave talks on Hinduism, earned his green card, and in 1966, left the consulate to pursue his spiritual vision.

In part 2, we’ll look deeper into the lengths Chinmoy went to transform himself into a myth, the scandals that lay underneath, and how the groups has fared in the nearly 15 years since their guru’s death.

Skeptic News: 9/11, Billy TK sermons, Despicable Sue Grey and more

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Skeptic News: 9/11, Billy TK sermons, Despicable Sue Grey and more

NZ Skeptics Newsletter

Welcome to the NZ Skeptics newsletter.

This week continues the level 4 lockdown in Auckland where I live. It’s been interesting to watch the numbers and we should be encouraged by the shape of the curve. But still, there are those niggling cases popping up. It does seem unlikely that we’ll be out of lockdown anytime soon.

I’m off for my second jab late this week, so will no doubt be looking forward to a couple of days having a sore arm. Still, it’s a small price to pay for the reassurance that if or when I encounter COVID I’ll be protected as much as is currently possible.

In the last newsletter I wrote you might remember I wrote about a complaint from Evorich. You’ll no doubt be surprised to learn that we’ve not heard anything further from them. Their 5 days deadline lapsed without further communication. Watch this space, I guess!

Craig Shearer

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9/11 20 year anniversary

Saturday this weekend marked the 20th Anniversary of 9/11 in the US. Of course, because of time zones it was Wednesday 12th September here in New Zealand when it happened, just after midnight.

Memories are interesting things. I can call the exact place I was when I heard the news – driving to work just after 7am in Auckland. (I can also recall the exact place I was when I heard the news about the death of Princess Diana.)

9/11 conspiracy theories have abounded and were primarily promoted by the alt-right, many centered around how the buildings could not possibly have collapsed as they did without a controlled demolition, or explosives. Conspiracy theorists confidently displayed the Dunning/Kruger effect in their pronouncements on the topic.

It’s always been a good topic for skeptics to examine, and it certainly sheds light on how people think about such extremely out of the ordinary events.

For an actual explanation on how the buildings collapsed, The Conversation did a good explainer.

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The news we share

As I’ve written in the past, NZ Skeptics often receive comments in our inbox and people often criticise us for parroting the mainstream media (usually abbreviated to MSM). Recent commenters have criticised us for sharing articles from the BBC, amongst others.

Is this fair criticism? I think not. All sources of information (including NZ Skeptics) have their biases and political leanings, so are never free from error or presenting information in a purely objective fashion.

However, we do try to present credible sources only.

There’s an interesting website, with an accompanying chart, that shows the major media outlets and how politically skewed they are, and the reliability of their content. It’s a fascinating snapshot of the state of the industry. You can take a look at the chart here.

In our defence, the outlets we typically share are on the more reliable end of the spectrum, and mostly in the centre of the spectrum on the political bias axis.

Speaking of political bias, there’s a perception out there that academia is full of left-wing liberal voices, and conservative voices are being “suppressed”. I came across a good video recently which nicely demolishes this argument.

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Billy TK is a religious minister!

Billy Te Hakiha is in the news again. You’ll recall that he was recently arrested, with his “partner in crime” Vinny Eastwood, for violating the lockdown, and holding a protest. Billy and Vinny spent some time in jail, but are now out on bail awaiting trial.

The bail conditions prevented them from communicating with each other, and prevented access to the internet.

This past week, they appeared in court (virtually) and BIlly now has limited access to the internet again – because he’s a religious minister, and has now been allowed to resume his online “religious sermons”.

I took a quick look at his “sermon” he gave on Friday afternoon as a Facebook Live event (I guess sermons aren’t just restricted to Sunday church services anymore!). While referencing the bible, the parts I heard quickly pivoted to “freedoms”.

“And what we’re having today in this new type of government system, we have an Egyptian type system… This new Egyptian system, the same system that’s in the Bible here, that we’re talking about is that’s wanting to kill people, restrain them, take away their rights and freedoms is the same type that we have today imposing tyranny on us.”

I think maybe the judge was a little naïve to think that Billy wouldn’t use his sermons to just push his conspiracy theories. I wonder whether he’ll be monitored as to how he’s using these opportunities.

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The despicable Sue Grey

I’ve written in the past about Sue Grey, the lawyer and past candidate for The Outdoors Party. She’s an out and out conspiracy theorist and her Facebook page is a magnet for the most rabid anti-vaxxers.

Yesterday she posted about the tragic death of a young woman at an Auckland secondary school, claiming (without evidence) that the death was a result of the COVID vaccination.

The post has since been taken down after it was inundated with comments critical of Grey, but it’s been reported that the parents are extremely distressed by the posting, and have noted that their daughter’s death was not connected with vaccination.

The contents of the post have been echoed around the world on various dodgy websites, and will likely continue to exist there.

Grey’s position on COVID is that the vaccination isn’t safe or effective, and that the government should just be promoting healthy lifestyles and vitamins. This is a pretty privileged position to be able to take from a country that hasn’t been ravaged by the virus.

It astounds me that her Facebook account is still intact, and that she’s still able to practise as a lawyer. From what I can see, this incident has raised her public profile (not in a good way) and there are plenty of people now complaining to the law society. The society doesn’t exactly make it easy to raise a complaint though – this page allows you to do so, but you need to fill out a PDF then email that back to them. I suspect that that will be enough of a hurdle so that most people don’t bother.

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Bye Peter

In the good news department this week, it was announced that there’s been a shakeup at the Magic Talk network – a radio station that specialised in talkback.

Peter Williams announced that he was retiring – on very short notice, and as of this week he’s no longer on the air. Whether he freely decided to retire or not – who knows. But he was a darling of the conspiracy theorists and anti-vaxxers (including the above mentioned Sue Grey), which was sad to see. Williams had a reasonable degree of respect from Kiwis after decades reading the news on TV.

Peter’s been replaced by Leah Panapa, who is likely to be a much more moderate voice. And Graeme Hill is returning to nights, which is good news. Graeme is a friend of the skeptic community, previously hosting regular slots with Siouxsie Wiles and Mark Honeychurch to report on skeptical news.

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Conversion Therapy Submission

This week NZ Skeptics submitted our view on the Conversion Practices Prohibition Legislation Bill. This bill proposes prohibiting so-called conversion therapies which aim to change a person’s sexuality, gender identity or gender expression. Curiously, the direction of conversion seems to be exclusively in the direction of becoming “straight” or identifying with and expressing the gender which aligns with the genitals you were born with.

Our submission makes the point that there’s no evidence to show that conversion therapies actually work, and lots of evidence to show that they do harm.

“As part of our mission to promote evidence-based policy-making and healthcare, the NZ Skeptics continually seek the advice of experts and findings of contemporary research with which to inform our positions on a variety of topics. The evidence is clear that conversion therapy is worse than ineffective, indeed it appears to be outright dangerous; provision of such therapies should be seen by New Zealanders as akin to fraud.”

If you’d like to read our submission, we have put a copy on our website.

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Awards and Bent Spoon

Our annual conference is coming up in November, on the weekend of the 19th – 21. As we’ve previously publicised, we’re holding it in conjunction with the Australian Skeptics. COVID willing, we’ll be having an in-person conference in Wellington, and they’ll have theirs in Sydney.

But, even if the in-person conferences are not possible, we’re additionally offering online tickets.

At our conferences we traditionally hand out our bouquets and brickbats, and we’re seeking your input. We hand out our Bent Spoon award, and also Bravo awards for journalists, and a Skeptic of the Year award.

Bent Spoon award

Each year the New Zealand Skeptics announces the Bent Spoon Award for the New Zealand organisation which has shown the most egregious gullibility or lack of critical thinking in public coverage of, or commentary on, a science-related issue.

We can all think of publications which run ridiculous and unbelievable stories as a regular part of their material. These are not Bent Spoon candidates. Instead we look for organisations and media outlets that tend to command credibility in the mind of the public, and who should have an accurate approach to information gathering and distribution. They are the ones who are rapped over the knuckles with the Bent Spoon when their professional standards lapse.

Bravo awards

We are also pleased to recognise excellence where it does occur, with our annual Bravo Awards. Each year the New Zealand Skeptics recognise a number of media professionals and those with a high public profile who have provided food for thought, critical analysis and important information on topics of relevance to our interests.

Skeptic of the year

The Denis Dutton Award for New Zealand Skeptic of the Year is given to the skeptic who has had the most impact within New Zealand skepticism.

We’re seeking nominations for these awards. Please get in touch either by emailing the committee, or using our contact page.

Coming soon…

We’re excited to announce the combined NZ and Australian Skeptics Conference/Skepticon. We’re holding this in person (COVID willing!) in Wellington and Sydney simultaneously on the weekend of 19th – 21st November.

There will also be the option to purchase a livestream ticket.

The conference will feature speakers from both sides of the Tasman as well as some exciting international speakers.

We’re seeking registrations of interest so that we can gauge interest.

Please visit the registration of interest page (hosted on the Australian Skeptics site) at the following link:

Register interest

If you have any news or thoughts you would like to see published in this newsletter, we would love to hear from you at:
news@skeptics.nz

if you want to support us by becoming a financial member, or would like to check your membership status, please go to:
https://skeptics.nz/join

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Skeptic News: COVID update, and more from EvoRich

96

Skeptic News: COVID update, and more from EvoRich

NZ Skeptics Newsletter

Welcome to the NZ Skeptics newsletter.

This week our COVID lockdown continues, and I’ve some updates on that. And we got an email from EvoRich – details on our response below.

Wishing you a great week surviving lockdown, whether it’s level 4 or 3. Stay safe!

Craig Shearer

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COVID update

The COVID Delta outbreak in Aotearoa New Zealand continues, with Auckland (where I live) and Northland being remaining in level 4 and the rest of the country moving to level 3 from Wednesday 1st September.

With level 4, everybody is meant to be staying in their homes to avoid exposure to others, but, in my observation of things, there are plenty of people out and about “exercising”. Apparently, exercising also extends to sitting down and taking a break, or stopping to talk to others, often maskless. Sigh! As we’re advised, we should all be acting as if we have COVID – only leaving our homes for essential shopping and some exercise.

As I write this today (Sunday), there are 83 new cases in the community. These appear to be a combination of transmission within bubbles – so people who are already identified as cases infecting others within their bubbles – and infection of essential workers at their shared workplaces. While the transmission within bubbles seem unavoidable, the transmission between essential workers is worrying, and likely to prolong the lockdown.

John Hart (@farmgeek on Twitter) has been keeping track and graphing the daily numbers. It’s nice to see that we appear to be “flattening the curve” though not as fast as some would have hoped. Though, perhaps the flat part will run for longer than hoped because of ongoing transmissions as mentioned above.

Unfortunately, the situation in Australia is getting worse, with 1,218 cases reported in NSW today. They have reported another 6 people dead, but over 800,000 people received a vaccine dose. Over the ditch they’re aiming for 70% of the adult population being vaccinated then they’ll lift restrictions.

A 70% vaccination rate is still woefully low on a population basis. I hope that we’re aiming higher.

The reality is that with the Delta variant being so infectious, once we open up again it’s likely that everybody will be exposed to it (or yet another variant!) at some point. When this happens it’s going to be painfully clear the difference between those who have been vaccinated, and those who decided to take the risk and remain unvaccinated.

I know I’m generally preaching to the converted, but the vaccine is safe and effective, with serious side effects being very rare. And the rare side effects and also those of COVID itself, so it’s far less risky to be vaccinated than to take your chances with COVID.

Mask exemptions

The anti-vaxxers and general “freedoms” bunch think they’re being clever. It’s now mandated that you must wear a mask when visiting a supermarket, unless you have an exemption.

Well this week, a woman in her 20s refused to wear one when visiting a supermarket. She produced a mask exemption document, which happened to be forged. The police turned up and arrested her. Charges are being considered under the Crimes Act.

An unfortunate death

You might remember back in May a high-profile BBC presenter – Lisa Shaw – died of a brain haemorrhage caused by a blood clot.

It’s now been investigated by a coroner in the UK and confirmed that Shaw’s death was likely a result of complications from the AstraZeneca COVID vaccine she’d received 3 weeks prior.

This really is a sad case, but will likely be used by anti-vaxxers, as a high profile case, to try to scare others away from taking vaccines.

Speaking of which…

Endless anti-vax “freedoms” promotion by VfF

As I’ve previously written, I keep an eye on the Voices for Freedom email channel. Over the past week they’ve been running “Freedom TV” everyday, trying to draw in new viewers, and even providing an email “template” with which to invite your unsuspecting friends down the rabbit hole with you.

Westland Mayor

In the past I’ve resisted poking fun (really, I have!) at some prominent individuals who come out with nonsensical, ridiculous pronouncements. But sometimes, it just gets to be too much.

This week, Bruce Smith, the mayor of Westland told us that he was sick of hearing from health experts about COVID -19, and thought business leaders should have more say!

He also has claimed that we should learn to live with COVID, just like our grandparents lived with Polio.

Luckily, Twitter user Richard Hills did a little research and uncovered the reality of NZ’s past Polio outbreaks…

And, to top it all off, it seems that Bruce denies climate change, claiming that “The climate’s been changing ever since I’ve been a kid”.

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Image: Sketchplanations

The Streisand Effect

Most skeptics will be aware of the Steisand Effect – so called because of the unintended consequence of trying to suppress information – which happened to Barbara Streisand back in 2003 when she tried to suppress pictures of her Malibu mansion.

You might recall that back in May, Mark Honeychurch wrote about a company called EvoRich, warning about Kiwis being involved in a possibly risky multi-level-marketing (MLM) scheme.

Well yesterday we received a document from EvoRich, from the highly professional email address evorichbiznes@gmail.com

The document, not even from their lawyers, was a Microsoft Word document. Word documents always make interesting reading if you go to the Info tab.

OK, so a couple of Russian names, confirming Mark’s writing about the company originating in Russia. Interestingly they began the document on the day we published the newsletter, but didn’t send it until yesterday. I wonder what triggered that.

Another interesting point – the Company entry “SPecialiST RePack” points to a “cracked” version of Microsoft Word being used to author the document. I’m sure all legit companies use cracked software versions! (Incidentally, it’s best practise not to send original documents out – best to convert them to PDF first.)

They’re not happy with what we wrote though. They claim that they’re not an MLM:

We are not MLM, because we have neither registration fee, nor dividends paid from lowers (sic) levels to upper ones.

There are technical definitions of MLMs but it would appear that their members spend a lot of time trying to recruit their friends and associates into the business. This is a classic characteristic of an MLM.

However, should it be that they’re not technically an MLM, so be it.

Mark reminded our readers in the initial newsletter that our Financial Markets Authority (FMA) warned about EvoRich being a potential scam. So, we’re not the only ones to think that.

They also complained that Mark used the wrong email address when trying to notify them about their insecure site.

Please be informed that we have 24/7 support desk, which can help you to solve any technical problems, including security. The Ethics Department consider only conflict issues, which violate the Ethics Code.

They complain that:

Please note that the abovementioned publication bears the hallmarks of Defamation, which, under the Delaware Law, is a false statement that does not show and reflect the image of International Marketing Community INC in a favorable light.

The Delaware address is interesting. It would seem that the address is essentially used as a “convenience” address – to give them a presence in the US without actually having to have proper offices.

They have requested that we substantiate our claims – the main one being that they’re an MLM when they’re not, and that we publish a “contradiction” – presumably a retraction – and delete the original article.

They threaten:

In case of failure with the above request, the Company of International Marketing Community INC will apply to the Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3), as well as judicial and other regulatory authorities in order to protect its reputation and name under the Delaware Law.

All very interesting.

Anyway, I decided to go do some digging myself, to check out what Mark had discovered and see what my impressions of the company were.

My first stop was to try to look at their website. The site is in Russian, but Google Translate allows me to see it in English. The site makes a variety of claims, but doesn’t really provide any detail as to how the company works, or how it makes money.

So, next stop was to search for their presentations on YouTube. I found this video which I began watching. The video is introduced by a woman based in South America. But the video then goes continues with a presentation about EvoRich from a person with a Kiwi accent.

The video revealed that the company has a variety of business ventures, including selling financial training, running “Edu Cafe” businesses, and running crypto-currency investment schemes.

The video later revealed that the presenter with the Kiwi accent was Andrew Hawkes, who is based in Australia, living on the Gold Coast.

Now, the name Andrew Hawkes rang a bell with me. I have a local acquaintance who I’m friends with on Facebook. I’ll call him Greg (not his real name). He seems to be a bit of a conspiracy theorist and anti-vaxxer. I’ve recently responded to some of his posts, trying to set the record straight about COVID and vaccines. One of those posts was pretty long-winded, but one of his friends, Andrew Hawkes, popped up in the discussion, spouting all sorts of typical anti-vax talking points.

I looked up Andrew Hawkes on LinkedIn.

Oh, there he is! At the Academy of Private Investmen (sic).

So, next stop was to look him up on Facebook. I found his profile, and confirmed his mutual friendship with Greg described above. I now understood the connection.

About three years ago Greg was posting on Facebook about this amazing investment opportunity – Skyway Investments. At the time there were many, including me, who tried to warn him about the nature of the investment, and that it was probably a scam. At the time, the FMA was warning people about it. Greg was adamant that this was going to make him rich, and that others should join him. Three years on, I see little evidence that the “investment” has panned out.

So, it seems highly likely that Andrew Hawkes was the vector for introducing Greg to Skyway – now EvoRich (and also NEEW – New Economic Evolution of the World).

Come for the investment advice, stay for the anti-vax and conspiracy theories!

Scrolling through Andrew Hawkes’s page on Facebook I came across a Facebook Live video he recorded this past Saturday morning. I thought it would be good to get some insight into what he’s promoting by watching his video. Contrary to my expectations about investment advice, what I got was a video full of conspiracy theories and anti-vax messages.

According to Hawkes:

“If you want to go out, and get an experimental shot from a known corrupt industry, then go for it, have at it, but don’t expect others to blindly follow you when they’ve actually done the research themselves, when they actually looked into it, when they’ve actually listened to scientists who are not being paid by the people who are pushing it…”

He then went on to talk about the Australian Census that’s currently underway, and spouted some astounding nonsense about official government documents being addressed to people with their names in ALL CAPS, and that being a separate legal entity to the person being addressed.

Hawkes then talked about COVID never having been isolated, that the Delta variant hadn’t been isolated, that COVID is a hoax, that it’s all to do with the UN and Agenda 21 or Agenda 30.

He carried on to talk about the government taking people’s guns away – referencing the Christchurch Mosque massacre of 2019.

Finally, he thinks that some of those getting the COVID vaccine are getting placebos (seemingly a misunderstanding of the original RCTs), that being vaccinated would allow keys and magnets to stick to your arm, and finally promoting Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine.

He claimed people should “think for themselves” – ironic since he was just regurgitating standard anti-vax talking points!

So, that’s Andrew Hawkes – high profile EvoRich promotor for the Australia/New Zealand region!

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Dr Dan

Finally this week, and related to the Streisand Effect above, comes the tale from David Farrier, of the popular Webworm blog.

Recently, David wrote about a certain doctor in Auckland at an Integrative Medical Centre, promoting alternative COVID treatments including hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin and hydrogen peroxide.

Dr Dan didn’t like what David wrote, so got his lawyers to send a cease and desist letter.

I’ll let David tell the tale – it’s a great read!

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Coming soon…

We’re excited to announce the combined NZ and Australian Skeptics Conference/Skepticon. We’re holding this in person (COVID willing!) in Wellington and Sydney simultaneously on the weekend of 19th – 21st November.

There will also be the option to purchase a livestream ticket.

The conference will feature speakers from both sides of the Tasman as well as some exciting international speakers.

We’re seeking registrations of interest so that we can gauge interest.

Please visit the registration of interest page (hosted on the Australian Skeptics site) at the following link:

Register interest

If you have any news or thoughts you would like to see published in this newsletter, we would love to hear from you at:
news@skeptics.nz

if you want to support us by becoming a financial member, or would like to check your membership status, please go to:
https://skeptics.nz/join

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Skeptic News: Snopes, vaccines, and climate change

96

Skeptic News: Snopes, vaccines, and climate change

NZ Skeptics Newsletter

Welcome to the NZ Skeptics newsletter.

This week there’s been a scandal over at the Snopes website. I get my COVID vaccine and we hear more about the situation we’re in with climate change.

Wishing you a good week – stay skeptical and keep promoting science!

Craig Shearer

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I’m sure you’ve come across the fact-checking website Snopes. It’s a popular, and generally quick way to check some internet rumour or news story for its veracity.

David Mikkelson is a co-founder of the website. It’s emerged, through a Buzzfeed investigation, that Mikkelson who used to write articles for the site plagiarised various other news sites for stories, often copying their text wholesale, or at least paragraphs. The contributed articles ran between 2015 and 2019.

Mikkelson also contributed articles under a pseudonym – Jeff Zarronandia, a practise frowned upon in journalistic circles. He claimed that using a pseudonym was for protection from people who didn’t like the results of the fact checks.

Now I have no journalistic training, but I know that you can’t just copy and paste text without attribution and get away with it. And apparently Mikkelson knew that too – he’s quoted as explaining “You can always take an existing article and rewrite it just enough to avoid copyright infringement.” The practise was to just copy and paste the whole text of a news article then go back and change various wording enough to avoid charges of plagiarism. That does seem like a fairly simplistic and dodgy approach.

So, to be clear, Snopes is still doing good work checking facts and being a source of information for shutting down hoaxes. But as always it’s best to check multiple sources, and attempt to locate the primary source where possible.

It is unfortunate that the scandal with Mikkelson will tar Snopes with that same brush. At least in the minds of simplistic thinkers, Snopes is no longer to be trusted. You can expect to have the scandal brought up if you choose to use Snopes as a source for whether something is true or not.

The current writers at Snopes have issued a statement about the plagiarism. It’s sad that they are affected by the unwise and unethical actions of one of their site’s founders.

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I got vaxxed

Last weekend I got my first shot of the COVID vaccine. Given my advanced age of 55 years, I became eligible to book a vaccine, which is done through the “book my vaccine” website. I found the process to be pretty smooth, and they allowed my wife (who is younger than me) to ride my coattails and also receive her vaccine.

There are the obvious jokes that can be made about improved 5G reception, and being magnetic. But, I’ve fortunately had little in the way of side effects apart from a bit of a sore arm for a couple of days. My next shot is booked for the middle of next month. I’m happy to be contributing and being part of the best solution we have to COVID.

Vaccine discussions

This week I’ve also had discussions with some friends/acquaintances at my choir, which I’ve previously reported on.

One of the people I talked to is of fairly advanced age, and unfortunately seems to be a bit on the vaccine hesitant side of things. He asked some reasonable questions, such as what advantage the vaccine had if you could still catch COVID, and still transmit it. I explained that it’s our best line of defence that we have – that the main point of it is that it vastly reduces the consequences of getting COVID – it’s our best chance of not dying from the disease or being hospitalised from serious complications.

I also argued that we are certainly in an unfortunate situation with the spread of the Delta variant. But it’s the anti-science attitudes of some countries (or at least some of their people) that got us here in the first place. Allowing COVID to run rampant, and using half-hearted ineffective responses has allowed the virus to mutate into more contagious versions.

The other person I talked to was an older woman who was indignant that our border closure and travel restrictions meant that her family living in the UK couldn’t come visit. I opined that it was perhaps unfortunate but the cost of allowing the border to be open would risk many deaths in our country. She responded with the point that we’ve had very few flu deaths, implying that we should trade the flu deaths for COVID deaths so she’s not personally inconvenienced. I politely ended that conversation!

This week we’ve seen announcements from the government following advice from the Skegg Report about how we can slowly reopen the border next year, on a risk-assessment-basis. This does seem to be the best approach.

But it’s contingent on getting everybody who wants to be vaccinated the chance of doing so. To reopen the border without the protection of a vaccination for everybody who wants it would be ethically pretty dubious. In particular, we need to get kids vaccinated. We’ve seen the effects of “long COVID” on some adults. It would be particularly awful to allow kids to acquire the disease and potentially face a lifetime of consequences.

Naturally there are those who want things opened up more quickly. We only need look across the ditch to NSW where we see the effects of a poorly managed outbreak and the consequences of that. To date there’s been a strong element of luck that the delta variant hasn’t snuck in and spread around Aotearoa/New Zealand. Let’s hope it stays that way.

Of course, once the border does reopen, the protection we have from COVID is predicated upon a large percentage of the population being vaccinated. Modelling of the R0 number for the delta variant shows that herd immunity would require an unfortunately unrealistically high vaccine penetration.

I used to think that decades into the future people will look and wonder, in horror, why people didn’t follow the recommendations of scientists and health experts. Maybe though, our arc of educational enlightenment isn’t following an increasing path.

Which leads me to the next topic…

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Latest IPCC climate change report

This past week has seen the release of the IPCC’s 6th assessment report on climate change. The report is issued every seven years. It’s become increasingly obvious with successive reports, that the world is in danger of severe consequences of climate change, and it’s increasingly certain (to the point of virtual certainty) that humans are the cause of it.

For some numbers, the last decade has been hotter than any time over the last 125,000 years. There’s now more CO2 in the atmosphere than at any point in the last 2 million years. We’re currently 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, and it’s likely that we could hit the 1.5°C point by 2030. And while 1.1°C seems like a small temperature change, it represents a huge amount of additional energy trapped in the atmosphere. We see that played out in extreme weather events, which will become more frequent, and more severe.

The science has been pretty clear for many decades (and the physical basis for it was known over a century ago). Skepticism of the science of climate change is misplaced. I’m skeptical that we can make meaningful enough change quickly enough to avoid the worst consequences.

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Things that didn’t happen this week

On a lighter note, this week there were two earth-shattering events that were meant to happen. The first was the Global Prayer to End Atheism, and the second with the prediction of Trump’s reinstatement as president on Friday 13th.

Being a skeptic doesn’t necessarily make one an atheist, nor is there a requirement to disavow religious belief, but I have a feeling that most readers of this newsletter and members of NZ Skeptics probably lean in that direction. (And there’s always debate as to what it means to be an atheist – in popular conception it seems to mean that you know for sure that god doesn’t exist, whereas the more technical definition would be a lack of belief in a god or gods.) Anyway, this global prayer was either meant to turn all atheists into Christians or send them to hell. Neither seems to have happened, at least in my personal view of things.

And onto the Trump reinstatement. To be fair, it was only the extreme right wing fringe, mis-informed by the My Pillow founder Mike Lindell, that seemed to cling to these beliefs. To be clear, Joe Biden is still the president, and Donald Trump isn’t. The date for Trump’s reinstatement seems to be continuously pushed back in a similar fashion to religious claims of the second coming of Jesus or the end of the world. I wonder whether there will be future dates announced!

If you have any news or thoughts you would like to see published in this newsletter, we would love to hear from you at:
news@skeptics.nz

if you want to support us by becoming a financial member, or would like to check your membership status, please go to:
https://skeptics.nz/join

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Skeptic News: Thomas John reads again, VfF FB gone, selling out for £10,000 and more…

96

Skeptic News: Thomas John reads again, VfF FB gone, selling out for £10,000 and more…

NZ Skeptics Newsletter

Welcome to the NZ Skeptics newsletter.

This week I cover another psychic sting, some good news from Facebook and a COVID-denier takedown in the UK, and finally questions around the very existence of viruses!

Craig Shearer

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Thomas John hot-reads again!

We’ve talked about purported psychic medium Thomas John before. He’s a shady character whose real name is Thomas John Flannagan. Previously convicted of stealing security deposits from renters after posting bogus apartment ads on Craigslist, and having also worked as a drag queen, he’s moved on to being a celebrity psychic medium.

He’s variously known as the Manhattan Medium, The Seatbelt Psychic (in a TV show where he transported people supposedly in a ride-sharing service and gave them readings). If you want to watch the awful show, it’s available on TVNZ On Demand, where he’s referred to as “Internationally renowned medium”.

Recently our friend Susan Gerbic of the Guerilla Skeptics led a sting operation on Thomas John. John recently reached a new low, by running an event targeting children. For USD $400/ticket (about NZD $575) a parent and their child could join a Zoom call for a reading. Little did John know that two of the sets of parents and children on the call were actually skeptics, in a setup designed to expose John’s hot-reading techniques.

The NZ angle to this is that one of the parents was Sheree, former secretary of NZ Skeptics, and her daughter. Well done Sheree!

The Friendly Atheist blog covered the story, and it was written up in great detail by Susan in Skeptical Inquirer.

Unfortunately, there’s still plenty of true believers who are willing to give the likes of John their money.

Thomas John, and the whole celebrity psychic industry are a blight on society. As John Oliver, on the TV show, Last Week Tonight, put it:

“…when psychic abilities are presented as authentic, it emboldens a vast underworld of unscrupulous vultures, more than happy to make money by offering an open line to the afterlife, as well as many other bullshit services.”

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Voices for Freedown Facebook Page shut down

In good news this week, Facebook has finally shut down the anti-vax, conspiracy-theory-mongering group Voices for Freedom’s page. They’re upset:

“Facebook cancelled our Facebook page Wednesday, with our page following growing by over 1000 fans a week, thousands of comments, and a monthly reach of nearly half a million people..

We’re not surprised, but it’s definitely a significant blow to both ours and your voice of freedom, and everyone should be outraged…” [emphasis theirs]

I’m sceptical of the claim of half a million people – I’m doubtful that there are that many deluded people reading their messages!

But other groups still exist run by either VfF leaders or their ardent supporters. These include The Health Forum NZ and NZ School Communities Unite, both of which are private groups so it’s not possible to see what they’re talking about unless you manage to infiltrate them.

The Health Forum NZ claims to “discuss the process of Informed Consent and COVID-19 vaccination”. Interestingly, their group has had various name changes, as reported by Facebook:

Amusingly their previous names seem to give the game away as to their real purpose.

The Health Forum NZ is run by Lynda Wharton, amongst others. Wharton is a naturopath and acupuncturist and has featured on the VfF webinars. I’ve seen her name pop up all over Facebook and she’s well known for her anti-vax views.

NZ School Communities Unite is another private group, run by Aimee Bearda who is one of the leaders of VfF. The group’s purpose is to “ to insure a robust School Governance Policy to protect our children against the intended Covid-19 Immunisation programme in schools”. Why such a group would need to be private isn’t clear.

Voices for Freedom are, according to an email to their insiders, planning on running a campaign this week. They called for donations and, if their latest email is to be believed, have received $50,000 in donations. It saddens me that a whole bunch of people would give up that sort of money.

It will be interesting to see what they do. They claim “the media/gov will hate it”. Watch this space, I guess.

With all their pleas for freedom and avoidance of lockdowns, I would remind them of the terrible situation in Fiji (with 238 deaths so far since the outbreak in April), and the situation in NSW which is far from being under control.

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COVID £10,000 sell out

Speaking of COVID grifters, an amusing take-down has emerged from the UK.Piers Corbyn is an anti-vax activist, and elder brother of the former UK Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Corbyn is certainly a character that skeptics would find interesting. He ran a weather forecasting company and along the lines of our own Ken Ring, makes predictions based on “The Solar Weather Technique”, which is based upon solar observations. Like Ring, he bases his predictions on historical weather patterns in addition to solar observations (whereas Ring uses the moon), and also claims to be able to predict earthquakes. Needless to say his predictions weren’t particularly accurate.

He also denies that humans play a role in climate change.

Of late, Corbyn’s been working to undermine UK efforts to vaccinate its population. He originally declared COVID-19 to be a hoax, blamed Bill Gates and George Soros, then went on to refer to COVID as a Chinese Bio-Weapon, then claimed it to be no worse than the flu.

Anyway, in a delicious prank, a couple of YouTubers Josh Pieters and Archie Manners, claiming to be investors in AstraZeneca essentially convinced Corbyn to accept £10,000 in cash to stop criticising the AstraZeneca vaccine in his anti-vax communications, and to concentrate on Pfizer and Moderna vaccines instead.

Happily, they managed to swap out the £10,000 in cash for a bundle of Monopoly money before handing it over to Corbyn.

The YouTube video of the experience is well worth a watch. The story is detailed here.

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Are viruses real?

One of the interesting aspects of being part of NZ Skeptics is that we often get contacted by people to espouse views and theories that diverge from the mainstream, evidence-based views on things.

The latest for us is claims from a New Zealand-based person who claims that viruses aren’t real – that they’re a hoax. You can take a look at the site promoting this nonsense. (http://thevirushoax.net/)

I’m not going to name this person as the communication quickly degenerated into threats of legal action.

From the communications I’ve had with this person it seems that they’ve latched on to some outliers in the scientific community who promote pseudoscience around viruses – Dr Stefan Lanka is the main culprit, though the site also lists a psychiatrist, medical doctor (who also promotes homeopathy and anthroposophical medicine), and, scraping the bottom of the barrel, a chiropractor.

In researching the topic, I’ve come across articles that actually show pictures of viruses through electron microscopes. The image above is of the COVID-19 virus, where the spikes can clearly be seen.

It seems that the person behind this works in the IT industry. I’ve encountered these types of people before – and they’re common in pseudoscience. There’s the Salem Hypothesis which suggests an apparent correlation between those who work as engineers and them being drawn to pseudoscientific beliefs such as creationism, crank magnetism and climate change denial. Perhaps we can add virus denial to the list. Though perhaps the Dunning Kruger effect explains things well too.

Our friend Siouxsie Wiles wrote up a piece explaining how COVID deniers have latched onto Koch’s postulates.

As we often say, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. If you’re going to take on the whole scientific discipline of virology, you’d better have some good evidence to back up your claims.

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Coming soon…

We’re excited to announce the combined NZ and Australian Skeptics Conference/Skepticon. We’re holding this in person (COVID willing!) in Wellington and Sydney simultaneously on the weekend of 19th – 21st November.

There will also be the option to purchase a livestream ticket.

The conference will feature speakers from both sides of the Tasman as well as some exciting international speakers.

We’re seeking registrations of interest so that we can gauge interest.

Please visit the registration of interest page (hosted on the Australian Skeptics site) at the following link:

Register interest

If you have any news or thoughts you would like to see published in this newsletter, we would love to hear from you at:
news@skeptics.nz

if you want to support us by becoming a financial member, or would like to check your membership status, please go to:
https://skeptics.nz/join

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Skeptic News: Climate change, Ivermectin and COVID dishonesty

96

Skeptic News: Climate change, Ivermectin and COVID dishonesty

NZ Skeptics Newsletter

Welcome to the NZ Skeptics newsletter.

This week there’s more climate change news, protest by farmers, tradies and ute drivers, and more COVID dishonesty revealed.

And make sure you scroll to the bottom – there’s exciting details about our upcoming joint Australia/New Zealand conference in November.

Craig Shearer

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Climate change is here

Over the past few weeks there have been various extreme weather events that are now being attributed to climate change, whereas once scientists were more cagey on the issue – saying that it’s never possible to blame any one event on climate change. But the evidence is stacking up, and we see temperature records being broken – 2020 was one of the three warmest years on record.

The severity of the recent heat-wave in Canada and the western United States has been attributed to climate change. Record temperatures in Canada (coming close to 50°C) exacerbated wildfires and the town of Lytton burning to the ground.

Just this week we saw massive flooding in Germany, with the death toll currently sitting at 170 people. This is also attributed to climate change.

It seems that most people in our country “believe” in climate change, and that it is human-caused. (“Believe” is obviously a problematic word for skeptics – we accept the evidence – it doesn’t require belief as such!) Research into public attitudes shows some fairly wide variations though – younger people are more accepting (and have the most to lose) whereas the older generations (who will likely die before the worst effects are seen) are less likely to believe.

Of course, climate change has been known about for many years. There’s a popular claim on the internet that a NZ newspaper from 1912 – The Rodney and Otamatea Times, Waitemata and Kaipara Gazette was first to publish a dire warning:

But actually, that same text was also previously printed in an Australian newspaper, and prior to that, appeared in an issue of Popular Mechanics.

A group of researchers at the University of Waikato recently studied people’s beliefs around sea level rise and how accurate they were. It found that a minority of people actually correctly knew the likely extent of sea level rise in the future. They point out that people both under- and over-estimate the effects of climate change. Over-estimating the effects might well lead to inaction based upon despair that there’s nothing that can be done.

The article also points out that sea level rise isn’t uniform – and that different areas of the country are rising and falling – the lower North Island falling at up to 8mm per year, and in other places rising at up to 10mm per year. Our planet is alive and ever changing!

Some years back the committee of the NZ Skeptics Society became concerned about the perceptions of the public with the use of the word “skeptics” to be associated with human-induced climate change denial. We issued the following statement:

The New Zealand Skeptics Society supports the scientific consensus on Climate Change. There is an abundance of evidence demonstrating global mean temperatures are rising, and that humans have had a considerable impact on the natural rate of change. The Society will adjust its position with the scientific consensus.

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Howl of a protest

So, on the back of increasing effects of climate change this week saw the “Howl of a Protest” event run by Groundswell NZ – a group that purportedly represents farmers and tradies and ute owners who protested against new government regulations they say are unworkable.In particular, they’re concerned about the Clean Car Discount programme, dubiously dubbed the “ute tax” as it will penalise those who drive vehicles which spew excessive CO2 emissions.

Interestingly, only 9% of all utes are registered for work purposes. There’s an interesting FBT (fringe benefit tax) loophole (or exemption as it’s referred to) that allows companies to avoid paying FBT on double-cab utes:

“IRD has decided that most double cab utes satisfy the requirement that the vehicle was not primarily designed or intended to carry passengers. Therefore, companies are incentivised to purchase utes as employee vehicles, even if another type of vehicle would suit the work better.

Moreover, although the requirement that FBT be paid when the employee uses the vehicle privately – to tow their boat out to the lake over the weekend, for example – this is rarely enforced, tax experts say.”

It would be nice to see the government address this distortion of the market that is causing more climate-damaging CO2 emissions.

The protest was largely in rural towns. In my reading, it’s been pointed out that there are plenty of farmers who are on board with the need to change practises and take climate change into effect.

So, how big was the protest? Well, the following photo was tweeted out to show the scale of the protest.

Except that that photo was actually of a Dutch protest. The photo was reversed (and cropped to remove the non-English signs) so the tractors were driving on the correct side of the road for our country. Slightly dishonest, I’d say.

Here’s the original photo:

The protest was also used opportunistically by the Voices for Freedom group to protest vaccines – more on them a bit further down.

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COVID-19 marches on

Yes, the pandemic is still with us, and alarmingly new strains are emerging. Evolution does what evolution does.

Currently the Delta variant is in the news, and it is more transmissible than the original strain. As I write this, New South Wales in Australia has 105 new cases and a death, and is in a fairly strict lockdown in an attempt to shut down transmission. Let’s hope they’re successful.

We’ve been very fortunate that COVID hasn’t escaped into the wild in NZ, especially after the visit last month by an Australian who was positive for COVID. It would seem that their previous Oxford Astrazeneca vaccine dose probably prevented them from transmitting the virus – though of course we can’t be certain. Yay for vaccines!

But while sensible people are getting vaccinated, spare a thought for those who can’t – those in less privileged countries who don’t yet have access. But also consider the flailing vaccination rollout in the US where people are refusing the vaccine, largely along political lines, and because of misinformation from anti-vaxxers.

As I saw somebody comment on Twitter, if Fox News had been around in the 1950s we’d still be fighting Polio and Smallpox today.

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Ivermectin study withdrawn

The drug Ivermectin is an anti-parasite drug (used on worms and head-lice), and has been touted as a treatment for COVID-19. On the anti-vaxx Facebook groups I monitor, it’s frequently cited as the favoured treatment for COVID-19, along the same lines as Hydroxychloroquine – though that seems to have faded a little now.

A study into Ivermectin has now been retracted over ethical concerns. And by “ethical concerns”, it would appear that’s euphemistic language for huge data fabrication and other scientific fraud.

The study was run at Benha University in Egypt. The study was an RCT, and claimed “substantial improvement and reduction in mortality rate in ivermectin treated groups” by 90%.

A medical student in London identified serious concerns in the paper including faked data and plagiarisation.

“It appeared that the authors had run entire paragraphs from press releases and websites about ivermectin and Covid-19 through a thesaurus to change key words. “Humorously, this led to them changing ‘severe acute respiratory syndrome’ to ‘extreme intense respiratory syndrome’ on one occasion,” Lawrence said.”

The paper was analysed in intricate detail by a couple of scientists and reported here, who came to the conclusion:

“In view of the problems described in the preceding sections, most notably the repeated sequences of identical numbers corresponding to apparently “cloned” patients, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the Excel file provided by the authors does not faithfully represent the results of the study, and indeed has probably been extensively manipulated by hand.”

Unfortunately the study was included in two meta-analyses and because the study was so large and overwhelmingly positive, this skewed the meta analyses resulting in a positive outcome for the drug.

“If you remove this one study from the scientific literature, suddenly there are very few positive randomised control trials of ivermectin for Covid-19. Indeed, if you get rid of just this research, most meta-analyses that have found positive results would have their conclusions entirely reversed.”

So, will anti-vaxxers stop promoting ivermectin for COVID treatment? I doubt it.Ironically, ivermectin is also used as a sheep drench – the anti-vaxxers promoting it are fond of calling those who accept the “official story” on COVID sheeple. Baa I say! 🐑🐑🐑

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Doctors under investigation

Sticking with the COVID theme, I reported in a previous newsletter about the website set up to allow medical professionals and “concerned citizens” to sign their name to the statement:

“I support New Zealand health professionals standing up for established medical convention, the Nuremberg code and informed consent.”

According to the site they now have over 7,000 declarations, including 41 doctors, 211 nurses and 421 New Zealand Allied Health Practitioners.

Previously the site listed all the signatories, but they recently turned that off, stating that “due to authorities actively threatening the livelihoods of anyone who questions their opinions, individual signatory names are presently withheld”.

The site is also programmed to prevent selecting text so you can’t copy and paste – though that’s easily overridden if you know what you’re doing in the web browser developer tools 😀

They’re referring to the current investigation by the NZ Medical Council into doctors who are promoting vaccine misinformation. This is a good thing – while doctors are entitled to their own opinions, they have to remain professional and not undermine vaccination efforts by promoting misinformation.

There are currently 13 doctors under investigation for promoting misinformation. Unfortunately, that investigation is going to take 9 months. I suppose they have to be thorough.

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More VfF dishonesty

As I’ve written before, one of the main purveyors of vaccine misinformation is the anti-vax, conspiracy theory group Voices for Freedom. You will have seen their distinctive branding with their blue, teal and green signs and professionally printed placards.

They glommed onto the Howl of a Protest, using it to promote their lies. It does seem that their ultimate agenda is to attack anything that the government is doing – as we’ve seen they have strong links to the AdvanceNZ party, so expect them to become a political force at some point in the future.

I keep track of their activities via a surreptitious, pseudonymous email address. Amusingly in one of their recent communications they claimed:

There are 3 things we know for sure:

1. The media, politicians and bureaucrats are bought and sold. We see the game they’re playing. We’re calling them out and holding them to account. The full extent of their conflicts and lack of real science will be exposed.

2. The Pfizer “vaccine” is not a vaccine. It is more accurately referred to as gene therapy – a harmful experiment causing significant injury.

3.The way out of this mess and tyranny is people power. When the people stand up and speak out, this ends.

I think their definition of “know” is at variance with the commonly accepted one!

Coming soon…

We’re excited to announce the combined NZ and Australian Skeptics Conference/Skepticon. We’re holding this in person (COVID willing!) in Wellington and Sydney simultaneously on the weekend of 19th – 21st November.

There will also be the option to purchase a livestream ticket.

The conference will feature speakers from both sides of the Tasman as well as some exciting international speakers.

We’re seeking registrations of interest so that we can gauge interest.

Please visit the registration of interest page (hosted on the Australian Skeptics site) at the following link:

Register interest

If you have any news or thoughts you would like to see published in this newsletter, we would love to hear from you at:
news@skeptics.nz

if you want to support us by becoming a financial member, or would like to check your membership status, please go to:
https://skeptics.nz/join

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Skeptic News: RIP Russell, Misinformation goes mainstream, and more…

96

Skeptic News: RIP Russell, Misinformation goes mainstream, and more…

NZ Skeptics Newsletter

Welcome to the NZ Skeptics newsletter.

This week I’ve some sad news to report – the death of Russell Tomes, who was one of our NZ Skeptics committee members. Russell was a prominent identity in the skeptical community, both locally and internationally. More details below.

Craig Shearer

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Russell Tomes

It is with great sadness that I have to report that Russell Tomes, a NZ Skeptics committee member died last week. Russell unfortunately had an undiagnosed heart condition and died of a heart attack.

Russell came to prominence in the media, both nationally and internationally by being a Pastafarian – a member of the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster (FSM). Russell wore his religious headgear (a blue colander) for his driver’s licence photograph – pictures of which were splashed around the world!

Russell was interviewed by Campbell Live on TV3 – we’ve put the clip up on our YouTube channel.

The Church went on to be able to perform marriages.

Russell was involved with NZ Skeptics for many years, and had worked on various skeptical activism projects – including showing up in person at a Jeanette Wilson event (the claimed psychic surgeon), and participating in various online activities with Susan Gerbic. He was also a member of Susan’s GSoW project, writing Wikipedia articles.

Russell was a great human being, with a warm heart and keen sense of knowing what was right and wrong with the world. He also had a fantastic sense of humour – and loved to wear costumes – if you’ve been to a recent NZ Skeptics Conference, you’d have encountered Russell in costume. I fondly remember many committee meetings (which we hold via internet video chat) where he’d appear with some ridiculous mask – such as Pennywise the Clown, from Stephen King’s IT.

While there won’t be a funeral, Russell’s mother is organising a remembrance event in Christchurch in a few weeks for those who were close to him. If you’d like to be involved, please get in touch.

The world, and certainly the skeptics movement, is a lesser place without Russell in it. RIP Russell – you’ll be greatly missed.

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Misinformation awareness goes mainstream

This past week saw the release of a report on misinformation, on research conducted by the Classification Office Te Mana Whakaatu. The Classification Office is traditionally responsible for classifying media, such as films and assessing whether material may need to be restricted.

While we’d like to see some way of reducing the impact of misinformation this is a difficult proposition for the Classification Office. From their report:

“The Classification Office cannot restrict or ban content on the basis of fairness, balance or accuracy. However we do have a mandate to restrict material that could encourage behaviour that poses a risk of self-harm or harm to others, and material that promotes criminal, terrorist or violent acts.”

It’s unfortunate that misinformation has to rise to the level of encouraging criminal, terrorist or violent acts for action to be taken. As skeptics, we know that misinformation has insidious effects that don’t rise to that threshold. There’s plenty of documented harm in believing silly things.

The report does highlight that there are widespread concerns about misinformation and that the internet plays a key role in its spread. And people are concerned and think something should be done. But it’s a difficult one, especially when commercial enterprises (such as social media companies) and their profit motive conflicts with our interests.

My belief is that the only solution to misinformation is better education in critical thinking and how to spot misinformation. In short – skepticism needs to be taught. But, maybe more awareness of misinformation by the general public will have an effect in making people more wary.

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Anti-vax paper retraction

An anti-vax paper was published recently in the open access Vaccines journal. “The Safety of COVID-19 Vaccinations – We Should Rethink the Policy”. The paper has now been retracted, though just getting it published is likely to fuel anti-vax misinformation.

Reported by Science Magazine, there have been a lot of resignations of scientists from editorial positions for the Vaccines journal, including our own Helen Petousis-Harris.

Unfortunately, according to the Science article, the paper had drawn 350,000 readers and been tweeted about by anti-vaxxers with thousands of followers.

Why was the paper published in the first place? The paper’s authors have no qualifications in vaccinology, virology, or epidemiology. The paper was peer-reviewed, but by reviewers without any of those qualifications either.

For such a controversial headline, you’d think that the reviewers would have had some second thoughts.

The study itself was hugely flawed – comparing data from a study of Israelis who received the Pfizer vaccine to reported vaccine side-effects in The Netherlands in a system similar to the US VAERS system – where reports are accepted but imply no causal link with vaccines. The paper comes to the astounding conclusion that “For three deaths prevented by vaccination we have to accept two inflicted by vaccination.”

As Helen Petousis-Harris states, the paper is very much a case of “garbage in, garbage out”.

While it’s great that the paper has been retracted, it would have been great to not have been published in the first place!

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Fluoridation of our water

You may be aware that there’s currently a bill before parliament to change the way that fluoridation of our drinking water is handled. Presently District Health Boards have the individual power to decide whether the water for the populations they serve is fluoridated or not. The bill would take that power away from the DHBs and give it to the Director-General of Health.

Letting DHBs have the power to control this makes them susceptible to health cranks who want to prevent fluoridation of our water supply. Having seen the lists of people standing for DHBs it makes sense that the power is vested with qualified experts!

The bill has been open to public submissions, and I (unfortunately) got to witness some of the oral submissions via Facebook Live. The vast majority of the submitters were against fluoridation! They trotted out the usual anti-fluoridation talking points, such as that fluoride is a neurotoxin and that fluoridation chemicals are contaminated with lead, arsenic, mercury and uranium.

I think an award should be given to the woman running the process at keeping a straight face after nearly three hours of lies and misinformation about fluoridation.

There were some submitters, particularly the Canterbury DHB, who were for the bill, and they made some sensible points – one of which was that the Director-General should take advice from the Director of Public Health, in case the Director-General is not a health person – as has been in the past, where the role was held by an accountant.

For the record, fluoridation is well studied, and recommended by the WHO. Our Ministry of Health recommends fluoridation.

At present, only about half of NZ’s population is covered by fluoridated water supply. The benefits of fluoridated water are fairly major in the avoidance of dental cavities, and very cost effective – many people avoid dental treatment because of cost. Fluoridating water is a cost-effective means to reduce cavities.

I hope that sense prevails and the misinformation from fluoride cranks is ignored.

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De-platforming

In the good news department, YouTube has de-platformed local misinformant Vinny Eastwood, also joining another local, Damien De Ment, also banned. Vinny Eastwood was king of promoting conspiracy theories, but it seems that various complaints have seen his channel now removed.

Is this a case of removing free speech? No – YouTube is a private company – it doesn’t have to provide a platform for people spouting dangerous misinformation.

It seems that Vinny was making a living off YouTube. Now, pleading on Facebook to his fans for support:

How sad. Get a real job!

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Conference update

Did you know that NZ Skeptics is running an in-person conference again this year (after not running one last year because of COVID).

This year we’re running it in conjunction with the Australian Skeptics – it will be a fully shared conference with speakers appearing in person and remotely from each side of the Tasman.

We’re excited about the conference, and the great line-up of speakers. It will be held in Wellington on the weekend of 19th – 21st November. Stay tuned for further details.

If you have any news or thoughts you would like to see published in this newsletter, we would love to hear from you at:
news@skeptics.nz

if you want to support us by becoming a financial member, or would like to check your membership status, please go to:
https://skeptics.nz/join

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Skeptic News: Choirs, dinosaurs, doctors and EVs

96

Skeptic News: Choirs, dinosaurs, doctors and EVs

NZ Skeptics Newsletter

Welcome to the NZ Skeptics newsletter.

I have quite a variety of topics to cover this week – including choirs, dinosaurs, doctors, and EVs (to put them in alphabetical order!)

Today is the winter solstice. Tomorrow we’re back on lengthening days, back to summer again! Yay 🙂

Have a great week!

Craig Shearer

Electric vehicle subsidies

Last weekend saw the release of a new policy by the government called the Clean Car Discount.

The scheme provides a rebate, starting on the 1st July, for purchasers of low emissions vehicles (Battery EVs – zero emission, and Plug-in Hybrid EVs or PHEVs which are classed as low emission). The rebates range from $8,625 for a new EV down to $2,300 for a used PHEV. They cover only vehicles registered for the first time in New Zealand, meaning that they don’t apply to second-hard sales of already-registered vehicles.

And, from the beginning of next year, purchasers of new and newly-registered used cars that are considered high emissions will be required to pay an additional fee of up to $5,175.

The scheme is designed to bias the market for new vehicles in favour of those that produce much less CO2 emissions. The transport sector makes up a huge chunk of NZ’s CO2 emissions – around 47% as of 2018. If we’re to meet our target of being carbon neutral by 2050 we need to be moving towards de-carbonising the fleet as urgently as possible.

As much as many people want to help out with reducing CO2 emissions by switching to an EV, the vehicles are still a lot more expensive than their fossil-fuel counterparts. We still have a way to go with improving battery technology and reducing its cost. So the subsidy will help those for whom the current cost of an EV is out of reach. It will have the secondary effect of putting more EVs into the market so that in future years there is a bigger second-hard market

As with any change in government policy there are going to be winners and losers. And, typically there’s plenty of misinformation around that feeds into people’s emotions. I’d like to cover off a few of these.

Firstly, I’m an EV owner and have been for nearly four years. I switched to a Nissan Leaf back in 2017, and earlier this year upgraded to a Tesla Model 3. I must say I’d find it very hard to go back to owning an internal combustion engine-based vehicle (ICE as they’re known in the EV community).

I’m probably going to sound like a fanboi, but there are so many advantages to EVs:

They’re incredibly cheap to run, especially if you do most of your charging at home, and take advantage of low night rates. (My plan costs me 12 cents per kWh between 9pm and 7am). The comparison to an ICE vehicle is that it’s equivalent to paying 40 cents per litre of petrol. Additionally, I spend virtually no time at petrol stations.
They’re cheap to maintain – there’s virtually nothing to do to them as they have so few moving parts. I certainly don’t miss the times of having to spend hundreds of dollars on vehicle servicing every few months.
They’re quiet and perform very well, leading to a smoother ride. Even the lowly NIssan Leaf can easily beat most ICE vehicles for take-off at traffic lights. EVs give you instant torque.
And, of course, they don’t produce any emissions, leading to cleaner air, which is good for everybody’s health, and also a big reduction on planet-warming CO2 emissions.

Top EV myths and misinformation

Let’s cover off some of the myths and misinformation that abound. Much of the myths and misinformation seem to emanate from fossil fuel vested interests!

“Range anxiety” and that you can’t do long trips. In the early days EVs their range was fairly limited, and in New Zealand it was true that you had to carefully plan out long trips and know where you could charge. Today, we’re well catered for with charging stations dotted around the country. Besides, 99% of most people’s use of a car is for around town and commuting – you charge up overnight and you’re ready to go again the next morning.
The batteries don’t last and they’re expensive to replace. (I saw a post on Facebook that the batteries only last 2 years and then cost $35,000 to replace!) It’s true that batteries suffer degradation over time (reduced range from when they’re charge to 100%), but battery packs in modern EVs suffer very little degradation. To take my Model 3 as an example, it’s expected that the battery will degrade by 5% per 100,000 miles (160,000 km), and probably 10 – 15 years before a 20% degradation. Practically, it will mean that over time, for long trips, I’d need to charge more frequently.
How will we dispose of all those batteries? Battery packs from EVs are extremely valuable. Once an EV’s battery pack has reduced to the point where the range of the vehicle is too small to be useful, the pack can be re-purposed as a home storage battery pack – i.e. charged from solar panels while the sun is shining and then used to power a home at night.
EVs catch fire. So do petrol cars – the question is how likely they are. Fires are extremely rare, but initial estimates are that fires in EVs happen at about 10% of the rate of fossil fuelled vehicles.
You can’t tow with an EV. I have a towbar, and tow a trailer without issue. However, towing does reduce the range. Over time, we’ll see the capability of EVs increase and the range of vehicles broaden to cater for more niche needs.
EVs are being powered by electricity generated from coal thereby defeating their purpose. The “defeating the purpose” bit really isn’t true. It turns out that EVs are much more efficient in converting stored energy (that’s the petrol or charged battery bit) into moving the vehicle than fossil fuel vehicles are – about 75% efficiency vs 30%. So, even if EVs were powered exclusively from coal-generated electricity they’d still reduce CO2 emissions compared to fossil-fuel vehicles. But, around 80% of NZ’s electricity is generated from renewable sources. Unfortunately, at the moment we’re experiencing low hydro-power lake levels – due in some part to the effects of climate change – exacerbated by emitting more CO2! 🙁 This YouTube video is a pretty good explainer.
EVs emit more CO2 during their manufacture. This is true, but as soon as they’re driven the lifetime emissions of an EV are way less. The fossil fuel vehicle continues to emit. The break-even point is around 45,000 km. If you buy an EV and never drive it anywhere, that’s definitely bad for the environment!

To be fair, EVs that can replace a family car are pretty pricey at the moment, and probably out of the reach of most kiwis. But as the market is seeded with new EVs with the rebate applied, used EVs in the future will be priced at more affordable levels. Additionally, as battery technology improves, manufacturing costs will also decrease making EVs more mainstream.

As I said earlier there will be those who are disadvantaged by the scheme (including recent EV purchases who’ve missed out on the rebate). But mainly, we’ve heard loud voices from the farming and trades communities that EVs don’t suit them, and why should they be penalised?

The reality is that high emissions vehicles are bad for the environment. Years of externalising the costs of emissions has led to the point we’re at. Climate change is real and human-induced and we’ve got to make changes to address it (though it’s inevitable that we’re doomed to suffer the effects of our inaction on it.)

Finally, the “law of unintended consequences” is always in play.

The delay of the fee for high-emissions vehicles is likely to see a spike in demand in the next 6 months to avoid the fee.

Similarly, the new demand for EVs is likely to drive up the price, at least of used imports where the price is set by the dealer. (New EVs are largely immune to this as their prices are already known so any attempt to hike prices would have to be carefully justified.) But, used car dealers (who knew they had such a bad reputation!) might well hike prices so as to share some of the fruits of the rebate scheme.

Additional EVs on the road will see increased demand at charging stations. But we have a healthy industry here in New Zealand that is installing more and more charge points. I see this as a very good thing.

Most other developed countries have some sort of subsidy scheme for EVs. It’s good to have NZ join the crowd. I was in Oslo, Norway in February 2020 (before the pandemic hit) and witnessed the effect of this first hand – they were everywhere. EVs made up 54% of all light-vehicle sales in Norway in 2020, compared to around 2% in New Zealand. Let’s hope that the Norway experience can be replicated here.

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Vaccine deployment

We’re still in the COVID pandemic but last week I had some cause for cheer. I’ve previously reported on the actions of anti-vaxxer groups, who seem to be made up largely of privileged (and entitled) middle-aged people (Boomers and Karens, to be derogatory).

I belong to a local choir (I’m a tenor, in case you‘re interested) which is also populated by the demographic that might well be influenced by anti-vax messaging and was encouraged to hear some of the older folk talking about how excited they were to be getting their vaccines. It certainly warmed the cockles of my heart to hear!

This week our PM had her first vaccine which should give anti-vaxxers pause for thought, though I doubt it will. They’ll likely rationalise it as a publicity stunt and she didn’t really get the vaccine!

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Doctors under invesigation

Speaking of anti-vaxxers, they’ve recently set up a website which allows people, including doctors, nurses and allied health professionals (including alt-med practitioners) to register themselves as objecting to the COVID vaccine rollout. They claim to have 33 doctors, 123 nurses, 244 allied health practitioners (gee, I wonder why this number is so large compared to the number of doctors!) and over 3,300 NZ “concerned citizens”.

Happily, being a doctor and spreading COVID misinformation isn’t without consequences. According to Stuff yesterday, there are 13 doctors under investigation by the NZ Medical Council after people complained about them spreading misinformation. Good to hear, and I hope the council follows through on this and takes action.

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Were dinosaurs real?

Finally this week, in the bizarre category, I read an article by Ken Ham, of Answers in Genesis infamy – the arch-creationist and science-denying anti-evolution propagandist.

Ken likely has an alert set up for any mention of his Creation Museum in Kentucky. Over on the Jerusalem Post website there’s a good article that mentions the “museum”.

The article is well-written and discusses the opinions of some ultra-Othodox jews that dinosaurs were a trick by God to make people believe that the earth was old – just to test their faith. But, the article argues against such an interpretation, but goes on to criticise Ham’s “museum” for its position on dinosaurs: that the earth is only a few thousand years old, and that dinosaurs lived alongside humans and were on Noah’s Ark and perished after the flood.

Ham defends his alternate hypothesis, apparently taking offense at the idea that his god is a deceiver.

Ham, ever sensitive to criticism, was incensed back in 2009 when PZ Myers (of the Pharyngula blog) visited the creation museum and “rode” a dinosaur. You’ve gotta laugh!